ECB raises interest rates

This week the topic is again the European Central Bank and the new interest rate adjustment. It is more than certain that the markets will react to the expected increase in the coming days. The only question that could worry not only investors is by how much they will increase. After all, the expected increase is half a percentage point to 3% and we could see levels as high as 3.5% over the next six months. At the end of the day, who benefits from such an increase?

Record profits for Deutsche Bank

As a result of higher interest rates and favourable market conditions, Deutsche Bank posted a profit for the 10th consecutive quarter. While housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable for mortgage seekers, the flip side, the banks, are clearly going to be better off this year. Deutsche Bank's annual net profit for 2022 came in at €5 billion, up 159% from last year, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching €1.8 billion.

According to Reuters, Deutsche Bank more or less doubled the consensus estimate for fourth-quarter net profit at €910.93 million, beating its annual forecast of €4.29 billion. The results were boosted by a restructuring plan to cut costs, while the exit from global sales and trading operations likely helped improve profitability.

The company has also cut back on investment banking and cut around 18,000 jobs in 2022. The bank has undergone a transformation over the past three years and has seen a significant improvement from the €1.9bn reported in 2021. The German bank achieved its best results in fifteen years.

Market pitfalls affect the shares

Despite the strong results, Deutsche Bank's shares started to fall by around 5% on Thursday. Indeed, the profit achieved is not the only factor investors are considering. In addition to the successful quarterly profit and the third, the challenges facing the German bank are also influencing the stock's growth. Investors see risks mainly in rising inflation that slows economic growth, the coming recession, regulations and last but not least, the military conflict in Ukraine. Over the past year, the company's shares have fallen by an average of 14%. However, further increases in key interest rates could help Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank AG NA O.N.'s stock performance over the past 5 years. (Source: Investing)

As for the overall banking segment in the Eurozone and rate hikes, the ECB rates the sector as healthy enough to cope with this challenge as well.  The continued rise in interest rates will have a significant impact on banks' balance sheets and profitability, and ultimately on their ability to lend.  Despite the good health of the sector, some banks may feel the negative impact, especially those that have not paid sufficient attention to preparing for the crisis. 

Lucía Žárska, analyst of ProfitLevel

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.